COVID-19 isolation and quarantine orders in Berlin-Reinickendorf (Germany): How many, how long and to whom?

Isolating COVID-19 cases and quarantining their close contacts can prevent COVID-19 transmissions but also inflict harm. We analysed isolation and quarantine orders by the local public health agency in Berlin-Reinickendorf (Germany) and their dependence on the recommendations by the Robert Koch Institute, the national public health institute. Between 3 March 2020 and 18 December 2021 the local public health agency ordered 24 603 isolations (9.2 per 100 inhabitants) and 45 014 quarantines (17 per 100 inhabitants) in a population of 266 123. The mean contacts per case was 1.9. More days of quarantine per 100 inhabitants were ordered for children than for adults: 4.1 for children aged 0-6, 5.2 for children aged 7-17, 0.9 for adults aged 18-64 and 0.3 for senior citizens aged 65-110. The mean duration for isolation orders was 10.2 and for quarantine orders 8.2 days. We calculated a delay of 4 days between contact and quarantine order. 3484 contact persons were in quarantine when they developed an infection. This represents 8% of all individuals in quarantine and 14% of those in isolation. Our study quantifies isolation and quarantine orders, shows that children had been ordered to quarantine more than adults and that there were fewer school days lost to isolation or quarantine as compared to school closures. Our results indicate that the recommendations of the Robert Koch Institute had an influence on isolation and quarantine duration as well as contact identification and that the local public health agency was not able to provide rigorous contact tracing, as the mean number of contacts was lower than the mean number of contacts per person known from literature. Additionally, a considerable portion of the population underwent isolation or quarantine, with a notable number of cases emerging during the quarantine period.

Evaluation of the EsteR Toolkit for COVID-19 Decision Support: Sensitivity Analysis and Usability Study.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, local health authorities were responsible for managing and reporting current cases in Germany. Since March 2020, employees had to contain the spread of COVID-19 by monitoring and contacting infected persons as well as tracing their contacts. In the EsteR project, we implemented existing and newly developed statistical models as decision support tools to assist in the work of the local health authorities. OBJECTIVE: The main goal of this study was to validate the EsteR toolkit in two complementary ways: first, investigating the stability of the answers provided by our statistical tools regarding model parameters in the back end and, second, evaluating the usability and applicability of our web application in the front end by test users. METHODS: For model stability assessment, a sensitivity analysis was carried out for all 5 developed statistical models. The default parameters of our models as well as the test ranges of the model parameters were based on a previous literature review on COVID-19 properties. The obtained answers resulting from different parameters were compared using dissimilarity metrics and visualized using contour plots. In addition, the parameter ranges of general model stability were identified. For the usability evaluation of the web application, cognitive walk-throughs and focus group interviews were conducted with 6 containment scouts located at 2 different local health authorities. They were first asked to complete small tasks with the tools and then express their general impressions of the web application. RESULTS: The simulation results showed that some statistical models were more sensitive to changes in their parameters than others. For each of the single-person use cases, we determined an area where the respective model could be rated as stable. In contrast, the results of the group use cases highly depended on the user inputs, and thus, no area of parameters with general model stability could be identified. We have also provided a detailed simulation report of the sensitivity analysis. In the user evaluation, the cognitive walk-throughs and focus group interviews revealed that the user interface needed to be simplified and more information was necessary as guidance. In general, the testers rated the web application as helpful, especially for new employees. CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation study allowed us to refine the EsteR toolkit. Using the sensitivity analysis, we identified suitable model parameters and analyzed how stable the statistical models were in terms of changes in their parameters. Furthermore, the front end of the web application was improved with the results of the conducted cognitive walk-throughs and focus group interviews regarding its user-friendliness.

EsteR - A Digital Toolkit for COVID-19 Decision Support in Local Health Authorities.

In Germany, the current COVID-19 cases are managed and reported by the local health authorities. The workload of their employees during the pandemic is high, especially in periods of high infection numbers. In this work a decision support toolkit for local health authorities is introduced. A demonstrator web application was developed with the R Shiny framework and is publicly accessible online. It contains five separate tools based on statistical models for specific use cases and corresponding questions of COVID-19 cases and their contacts. The underlying statistical methods have been implemented in a new open-source R package. The toolkit has the potential to support local health authorities' employees in their daily work. A simulated-based validation of the statistical models and a usability evaluation of the demonstrator application in a user study will be carried out in the future.

Radiation-Free Thoracic Endovascular Aneurysm Repair with Fiberoptic and Electromagnetic Guidance: A Phantom Study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of a radiation-free implantation of a thoracic aortic stent graft employing fiberoptic and electromagnetic tracking in an anthropomorphic phantom. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An anthropomorphic phantom was manufactured based on computed tomography (CT) angiography data from a patient. An aortic stent graft application system was equipped with a fiber Bragg gratings and 3 electromagnetic sensors. The stent graft was navigated in the phantom by 3 interventionalists using the tracking data generated by both technologies. One implantation procedure was performed. The technical success of the procedure was evaluated using digital subtraction angiography and CT angiography (before and after the intervention). Tracking accuracy was determined at various anatomical landmarks based on separately acquired fluoroscopic images. The mean/maximum errors were measured for the stent graft application system and the tip/end of the stent graft. RESULTS: The procedure resulted in technical success with a mean error below 3 mm for the entire application system and <2 mm for the position of the tip of the stent graft. Navigation/implantation and handling of the device were rated sufficiently accurate and on par with comparable, routinely used stent graft application systems. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates successful stent graft implantation during a thoracic endovascular aortic repair procedure employing advanced guidance techniques and avoiding fluoroscopic imaging. This is an essential step in facilitating the implantation of stent grafts and reducing the health risks associated with ionizing radiation during endovascular procedures.

Instrument localisation for endovascular aneurysm repair: Comparison of two methods based on tracking systems or using imaging.

BACKGROUND: In endovascular aneuysm repair (EVAR) procedures, medical instruments are currently navigated with a two-dimensional imaging based guidance requiring X-rays and contrast agent. METHODS: Novel approaches for obtaining the three-dimensional instrument positions are introduced. Firstly, a method based on fibre optical shape sensing, one electromagnetic sensor and a preoperative computed tomography (CT) scan is described. Secondly, an approach based on image processing using one 2D fluoroscopic image and a preoperative CT scan is introduced. RESULTS: For the tracking based method, average errors from 1.81 to 3.13 mm and maximum errors from 3.21 to 5.46 mm were measured. For the image-based approach, average errors from 3.07 to 6.02 mm and maximum errors from 8.05 to 15.75 mm were measured. CONCLUSION: The tracking based method is promising for usage in EVAR procedures. For the image-based approach are applications in smaller vessels more suitable, since its errors increase with the vessel diameter.

A Statistical Model to Assess Risk for Supporting COVID-19 Quarantine Decisions.

In Germany, local health departments are responsible for surveillance of the current pandemic situation. One of their major tasks is to monitor infected persons. For instance, the direct contacts of infectious persons at group meetings have to be traced and potentially quarantined. Such quarantine requirements may be revoked, when all contact persons obtain a negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test result. However, contact tracing and testing is time-consuming, costly and not always feasible. In this work, we present a statistical model for the probability that no transmission of COVID-19 occurred given an arbitrary number of negative test results among contact persons. Hereby, the time-dependent sensitivity and specificity of the PCR test are taken into account. We employ a parametric Bayesian model which combines an adaptable Beta-Binomial prior and two likelihood components in a novel fashion. This is illustrated for group events in German school classes. The first evaluation on a real-world dataset showed that our approach can support important quarantine decisions with the goal to achieve a better balance between necessary containment of the pandemic and preservation of social and economic life. Future work will focus on further refinement and evaluation of quarantine decisions based on our statistical model.

Three-dimensional guidance including shape sensing of a stentgraft system for endovascular aneurysm repair.

PURPOSE: During endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) procedures, medical instruments are guided with two-dimensional (2D) fluoroscopy and conventional digital subtraction angiography. However, this requires X-ray exposure and contrast agent is used, and the depth information is missing. To overcome these drawbacks, a three-dimensional (3D) guidance approach based on tracking systems is introduced and evaluated. METHODS: A multicore fiber with fiber Bragg gratings for shape sensing and three electromagnetic (EM) sensors for locating the shape were integrated into a stentgraft system. A model for obtaining the located shape of the first 38 cm of the stentgraft system with two EM sensors is introduced and compared with a method based on three EM sensors. Both methods were evaluated with a vessel phantom containing a 3D-printed vessel made of silicone and agar-agar simulating the surrounding tissue. RESULTS: The evaluation of the guidance methods resulted in average errors from 1.35 to 2.43 mm and maximum errors from 3.04 to 6.30 mm using three EM sensors, and average errors from 1.57 to 2.64 mm and maximum errors from 2.79 to 6.27 mm using two EM sensors. Moreover, the videos made from the continuous measurements showed that a real-time guidance is possible with both approaches. CONCLUSION: The results showed that an accurate real-time guidance with two and three EM sensors is possible and that two EM sensors are already sufficient. Thus, the introduced 3D guidance method is promising to use it as navigation tool in EVAR procedures. Future work will focus on developing a method with less EM sensors and a detailed latency evaluation of the guidance method.

Fiber optical shape sensing of flexible instruments for endovascular navigation.

PURPOSE: Endovascular aortic repair procedures are currently conducted with 2D fluoroscopy imaging. Tracking systems based on fiber Bragg gratings are an emerging technology for the navigation of minimally invasive instruments which can reduce the X-ray exposure and the used contrast agent. Shape sensing of flexible structures is challenging and includes many calculations steps which are prone to different errors. To reduce this errors, we present an optimized shape sensing model. METHODS: We analyzed for every step of the shape sensing process, which errors can occur, how the error affects the shape and how it can be compensated or minimized. Experiments were done with one multicore fiber system with 38 cm sensing length, and the effects of different methods and parameters were analyzed. Furthermore, we compared 3D shape reconstructions with the segmented shape of the corresponding CT scans of the fiber to evaluate the accuracy of our optimized shape sensing model. Finally, we tested our model in a realistic endovascular scenario by using a 3D printed vessel system created from patient data. RESULTS: Depending on the complexity of the shape, we reached an average error of 0.35-1.15 mm and maximal error of 0.75-7.53 mm over the whole 38 cm sensing length. In the endovascular scenario, we obtained an average and maximal error of 1.13 mm and 2.11 mm, respectively. CONCLUSION: The accuracies of the 3D shape sensing model are promising, and we plan to combine the shape sensing based on fiber Bragg gratings with the position and orientation of an electromagnetic tracking to obtain the located catheter shape.

Navigation and visualisation with HoloLens in endovascular aortic repair.

INTRODUCTION: Endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) is a minimal-invasive technique that prevents life-threatening rupture in patients with aortic pathologies by implantation of an endoluminal stent graft. During the endovascular procedure, device navigation is currently performed by fluoroscopy in combination with digital subtraction angiography. This study presents the current iterative process of biomedical engineering within the disruptive interdisciplinary project Nav EVAR, which includes advanced navigation, image techniques and augmented reality with the aim of reducing side effects (namely radiation exposure and contrast agent administration) and optimising visualisation during EVAR procedures. This article describes the current prototype developed in this project and the experiments conducted to evaluate it. METHODS: The current approach of the Nav EVAR project is guiding EVAR interventions in real-time with an electromagnetic tracking system after attaching a sensor on the catheter tip and displaying this information on Microsoft HoloLens glasses. This augmented reality technology enables the visualisation of virtual objects superimposed on the real environment. These virtual objects include three-dimensional (3D) objects (namely 3D models of the skin and vascular structures) and two-dimensional (2D) objects [namely orthogonal views of computed tomography (CT) angiograms, 2D images of 3D vascular models, and 2D images of a new virtual angioscopy whose appearance of the vessel wall follows that shown in ex vivo and in vivo angioscopies]. Specific external markers were designed to be used as landmarks in the registration process to map the tracking data and radiological data into a common space. In addition, the use of real-time 3D ultrasound (US) is also under evaluation in the Nav EVAR project for guiding endovascular tools and updating navigation with intraoperative imaging. US volumes are streamed from the US system to HoloLens and visualised at a certain distance from the probe by tracking augmented reality markers. A human model torso that includes a 3D printed patient-specific aortic model was built to provide a realistic test environment for evaluation of technical components in the Nav EVAR project. The solutions presented in this study were tested by using an US training model and the aortic-aneurysm phantom. RESULTS: During the navigation of the catheter tip in the US training model, the 3D models of the phantom surface and vessels were visualised on HoloLens. In addition, a virtual angioscopy was also built from a CT scan of the aortic-aneurysm phantom. The external markers designed for this study were visible in the CT scan and the electromagnetically tracked pointer fitted in each marker hole. US volumes of the US training model were sent from the US system to HoloLens in order to display them, showing a latency of 259±86 ms (mean±standard deviation). CONCLUSION: The Nav EVAR project tackles the problem of radiation exposure and contrast agent administration during EVAR interventions by using a multidisciplinary approach to guide the endovascular tools. Its current state presents several limitations such as the rigid alignment between preoperative data and the simulated patient. Nevertheless, the techniques shown in this study in combination with fibre Bragg gratings and optical coherence tomography are a promising approach to overcome the problems of EVAR interventions.